Alternative Musics: Making Money Internet

MSFT Rising With Markets
The markets are staging a wild rally as lower yields in Italy and strong housing numbers are producing a major snap back from yesterday. Shares of MSFT are up, although less than the rest of the tech market. Upcoming catalysts include Windows 8 next year; entrance into the tablet market; Windows Phone 7 / Mango rollout and adoption with hardware partner Nokia; strides against current market leaders in cloud computing; making money in the online business, including integration of Skype and improving the search / display business; and continued evolution of Kinect and next generation Xbox. The stock currently trades at 6.9x Enterprise Value / TTM Free Cash Flow.

To Compete In The Cloud, Microsoft Will Have To Sacrifice Margin (Bloomberg)
Microsoft’s push into cloud computing will help the company compete, but it also will hurt profit margins. The company’s cloud software lets corporate customers pay a subscription to manage data with software stored and run on Microsoft’s servers. The cost of which means the company may miss profit estimates for fiscal 2012 according to Goldman Sachs analyst Heather Bellini. That said, no financial data has been released on how Microsoft is doing in the space. If the company really wants to convince the world that it's serious about cloud, it should tell the world how those products are doing.

Bing Gains Search Share At The Expense Of Partner Yahoo! (comScore)
Bing has managed to gain enough market share that it's basically tied for the number-two position in U.S. core search. Unfortunately, those gains have come from its partner Yahoo, rather than its competitor Google. The bigger search picture is still the same, however. Google dominates with more than 65% share, and the Microsoft-Yahoo deal hasn't really dented that. At least it didn't gain any share this month, unlike the previous two.

Chrome Dethrones Internet Explorer As The Most Used Browser (ComputerWorld)
Google Chrome continues its incredible rise, finally overtaking Microsoft's Internet Explorer as the most-used version of a browser, according to a study done by StatCounter. This only applies to Chrome 15 overtaking Internet Explorer 8. If you lump all versions of all browsers together, Internet Explorer still has the greatest marketshare: Chrome 15 (24%), Internet Explorer 8 (22.9%) and Firefox 8 (14%).

Based On DCF Valuation, Microsoft Is Highly Undervalued (Seeking Alpha)
Based on discounted cash-flow methodology (which you can derive and justify any valuation you want), Microsoft is significantly undervalued. Fair value is $39 per share, a significant increase over current levels. Microsoft has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. Free cash flow margin should average about 29.4% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 0.4 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 17.3%. And the firm sports a very nice dividend yield of 3%+.

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Monday, December 26, 2011

Making Money Internet

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